Measuring Infant Mortality Using Synthetic Survival Curves
with Seth Freedman and Coady Wing
Abstract
This study develops and validates a novel synthetic control framework for estimating the effects of policy interventions on survival functions. Estimating counterfactual survival functions may provide insight into the way that interventions affect outcomes with a duration structure at different follow up times. We study the performance of the method using data on linked infant birth-death data to measure survival over the first year of life for multiple birth cohorts in each US state, and simulating treatment effects from hypothetical interventions. Results from simulated placebo tests and power analysis show that a synthetic survival curve estimators produces stable counterfactual estimates and is able to detect relatively small treatment effects with high statistical power. Power analyses indicate that the method reliably detects survival rate reductions as small as 0.3% with 80% power. These validation results demonstrate the method’s potential in evaluating the effects of changes in abortion policy on infant mortality.
(Draft available upon request)
Economic, Demographic, and Health Effects of Medical Assistance in Dying
with Coady Wing, Julian Reif, and Jennifer Stewart
Abstract
This paper examines how the legalization and expansion of Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) in Canada has influenced mental health-related mortality and end-of-life decision-making. Using linked administrative data, we assess whether access to MAID reduces suicide rates or delays death among individuals facing serious physical or psychological conditions. We also examine how socioeconomic status, healthcare access, and family support influence MAID uptake. Employing high-dimensional survival models, we estimate the extent to which MAID may substitute for suicide and shift the timing of death. These findings are especially timely as Canada prepares to expand MAID eligibility to individuals with mental health conditions as a primary diagnosis. Our results contribute to ongoing ethical and policy debates by providing empirical evidence on how MAID is being used and by whom, offering insights into the equity and effectiveness of end-of-life care policies.
Past Research/Undergraduate Publication
Exitability and Economic Freedom: Evidence from the U.S.
International Advances in Economic Research (2017, with Josh Hall)